On 11MP, Banking, Economics & Survey Monkey


11th Malaysia Plan (11MP)

    • Increased allocation: Govt allocated RM250b for development expenditure (+8.7% vs 10MP)
    • Post-MP rally historically: Last 3 MPs show markets rally rallied 17-21% after tabled in Parliament to year end
      (Note this is inconclusive & not a buy recommendation)
    • Construction: Main growth be infrastructure centric. Positive spillover driven by stronger demand for products (especially cement sub-sector)
    • Education: Education standards in Malaysia below developed peers. Believe increase education allocation as high education standards paramount for a developed nation.
    • Companies expected to benefit most from 11MP: IJM, UEM, Gamuda

Banking (2015 Mar Analysis)

    • Loans growth +9.2% yoy as pick up both business & household (but estimate remain around 8%)
    • Mar growth vs Feb (but Feb short month, festive season & Mar maybe ahead of GST
    • Deposits growth accelerated, highest since May 13
    • Business growth shown signs of acceleration
    • Banks Net Interest Margin (NIM) lower due to intensified loans competition amongst banks (less profit)
    • New lending framework may see more loan pricing discipline (from banks)
    • Relaxed Loan Coverage Ratio (LCR) could ease deposits competition among banks (If you are planning FD deposit good time to lock in)
    • Asset quality improved but capital ratios declined slightly

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Economics – BNM Highlights

    • Monetary indicators improve showing growth in Jan, Feb & Mar
    • Better-than-expected GDP growth in 2015 Q1 expect improve further in Q2
    • Household loan-deposit growth gap widened slightly in March with household loan growth +9.8% yoy (Feb: +9.7%)
    • Household deposit growth dip to 6.2% yoy (Feb: +6.4%)
    • Residential property indicators suggest cautious outlook given stringent lending & wait-and-see attitude from GST impact
    • Excess liquidity reduced to RM176.9b end-Mar (Feb: RM178.5b), reflecting continuing foreign capital outflows
    • Expected no change in monetary policy 2015 as
        1. (i) risk of deepening global slowdown (i.e. China) on exports
        1. (ii) uncertainty GST impact
        1. (iii) limited threat to inflation

A Choice Banana Peels Away

  • Survey Monkey CEO David Goldberg passed away while on treadmill in hotel
  • Leaving Wife, Sheryl Sandberg COO of fb
  • SM is good as well-designed, user-friendly (& basic plan is absotively free)
  • Deepest condolences & sympathies to the family
  • Hope Survey Monkey doesn’t become Survey Money though when a new CEO takes over

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